Things are Beginning to Add Up
Friday, August 25, 2006
Today we were shocked when we looked up a quote on the
Toronto Stock Exchange for SXR. We were forced to refresh the page and then
begin investigating how at 10:30 the stock had already traded 4 million shares
and not moved significantly in any direction. We have watched in awe over the
past few weeks as it seems that all volume has dried up for nearly all uranium
stocks and new that 400,000 shares per day was the 3-month average, however
recently it has been at about 180,000-380,000 and generally on the lower end of
that range. So naturally when we saw this, we were confused. This is significant
because someone dumped a block of nearly 3.7 million shares (10x average volume)
in one swift trade that was not only absorbed by the market, but successfully
absorbed! This is a positive sign where we now know that the stock has had low
volume and it is not a lack of buyers, but rather a lack of sellers! Apparently
there are some out there who want these shares, and when available they will
buy.
My hypothesis here is that all the current investors who
are in these stocks understand the fundamentals and have the financial heft to
have survived the past downturn. Remember, I have said all along that we could
not have another significant upturn until we shook all the weak hands out of the
market. We think this explains what now appears to be the suckers rally that
took place nearly 2 months ago, the subsequent fall and now the lack of trading
in these stocks. We do not believe that the stocks will go up dramatically just
through these smart investors buying, but rather through the masses rushing back
into the very same stocks that they rushed out of so quickly and abandoned
trading in for the past quarter.
We also have been going through some papers that have been
sitting around for some time now, and decided to act upon these 'leads'. We had
an interview with Neal Froneman, who happens to be the CEO of SXR, saying that
his company was very interested in another acquisition that made sense in the
United States. We found this interesting as it supports our thinking that Cameco
and SXR and those future producers group would become major players in the
uranium patch. However, we were intrigued to see that he seems almost more
interested in adding good managements teams and, much more importantly, good
geologists. UR Energy and Strathmore were mentioned as potential buyout targets,
which make sense as it seems that SXR is interested in adding ISR capable teams
to its line-up. SXR is a traditional mining company and seems to possess the
knowledge in open pit mining, but it is my opinion that they realize that they
will need highly capable ISR knowledgeable individuals to bring Honeymoon
online. What better way to do that through an acquisition that also adds some
great properties that will soon be producing in the near future? I cannot think
of one and if you can please leave a note in the comment box, because that could
be the next big 'thing' in the uranium industry. We are not sure about the
possibilities surrounding this, but we will be looking into this further and
shall revisit the topic at a later date.