The Beginning of a New Run
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
It finally appears that the bottom has been hit in the
microcap resource stocks as we have risen above the previous highs set from the
old lows. It also seems that the companies themselves believe that their stocks
are becoming fairly valued because in the last week one of our favorites,
SXRuraniumone, has been out purchasing properties for cash and STOCK! Although
we would hope that they would use cash to purchase these properties it appears
that the uranium patch has caught fire and equity will now be a required element
in any transaction involving physical assets as it was during the last boom in
Internet Stocks. We feel that the SXR is issuing stock because first it must and
second they feel that the dilution to current shareholders will be offset with
future events that will be coming up. Remember that this company will be opening
a mine in Africa and is the next mine in Australia that will receive approval.
In previous posts we stated that we believed that the next wave of producers
would join Cameco (CCJ) as the elite companies in this field through their
production and then acquisitions and it appears that this is exactly what is
happening. Take note that Paladin (PDN.TO) recently made a purchase of an
Australian Junior and these recent moves by SXR seem verify this previous
notion.
Keeping with that idea it seems that Ur Energy (UREGF in
the US and URE.TO in Canada) is running on all cylinders right now. They have
the stock price up from US$1.73 where we recommended it to a recent US$2.23
which is up 29%. These guys will become a dominant player as they will be
pumping uranium out of the ground in 2008 through their in-situ leaching
process. They keep expanding their holdings and resources in Wyoming and this
asset in the US will undoubtedly become worth more than foreign holdings as it
will be viewed as a safe investment.
On really no news we have also seen Pitchstone Exploration
take off from its lows at C$1.30 to a recent C$1.74 a 31% increase from the
bottom. If SXR is serious about locking up real estate for uranium exploration
we truly believe that this would be a very good target to take out. They would
lower future expenses related to their Joint Venture and also take control of
the SXR shares and options they have already paid Pitchstone (PXP.V). Regardless
of a takeover from SXR though, we still believe that Pitchstone is in a very
sweet spot in the Athabasca Basin which can only be matched by a few other
companies.
The past week I have been confused as to why Canwest (CWPC)
is down. Logically one understands that they apparently disappointed the market
with Management's Reserve Estimate, but we must point out that 250 million
barrels of oil is no joke. When one also considers the fact that they drilled 19
holes and were only able to use 13 holes for the Reserve Estimate, then we must
check the market's logic because that is roughly 19 million barrels per
successful drill hole. The fact that this drill information is on 1/2 of 1% of
the total land they possess is of no significance in our opinion, but we do
believe that the company will find over a billion barrels IN THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO on their land.
On a more positive note Cameco has rebounded strongly as
the Uranium stocks have gotten a second wind, precisely as we thought would
happen as we recommended a look at the December '06 Calls then at $5.60. We now
see that they closed today at $9 for a gain of 61% on paper. We will hold onto
this contract as we believe it becomes worth more as the confidence in the
sector increases thus increasing the premium for the contract itself...at least
until November when the premium begins to evaporate as the option nears
expiration.
CanAlaska resumed drilling at West McArthur and will need
to play catch-up in order to complete the holes they did not get to last year
due to inclement weather...or lack thereof to be honest. Also keep an eye on the
NorthEast Project. They will begin drilling on this vast track situated just
outside the Basin and this is the project we believe that the Chinese were
interested in only a few months ago...if they have good news on this project it
could bring in a ton of the Chinese money that they seem so willing to throw at
energy companies these days.
In other news it seems that the Canadian Dollar has fallen
below the US$.90 level and is now hovering around the US$.88 level. The
Australian Dollar seems to be recovering to the all important US$.75 level and
as it rises we expect that it will be fueled in part by the resource stocks
rising in conjunction.
We also believe that as Australia's resources become more
in demand so will their currency (same case with Canada) so we view these
currencies as crucial to our foreign investments because each percent that they
rise they will add significantly to our positions and form a second trade for
us.
Currently we still feel as though we should be adding to
our “Future Blue Chips” so we like CWPC and SXR at these levels as we expect
them to begin acting well after the market figures out in which way it wishes to
move. Much of this depends on the US Federal Reserve, but we feel that resource
stocks are the place to be as the US$ has steadily declined in response to the
Fed hiking rates...this is not usual, so we expect that the US$ will decline
thus forcing up our stocks and the prices paid for their resources, not to
mention the currency exchange rate.