A Future Blue Chip
Tuesday, April 11, 2006
This whole “Uranium Movement” that you see happening right
now is in the early stages of what will most likely be looked back upon as one
of the best investing opportunities of a generation. In all likelihood it will
make the internet craze of the late 90s look like K2 compared to Uranium's Mount
Everest. See the internet was based on promise, much as uranium is, however
uranium has real fundamentals and real demand. These two facts also equal real
money as the explorers/miners are dealing with a real product that will forever
be demanded. Think about it like this, every time a customer was not pleased
with their online experience for one reason or another they could simply just
not use the internet for their buying, selling, or searching needs. With
Uranium, that is not the case because once China or India build a Nuclear Power
plant they must forever use uranium fuel to power the reactor...In short the
demand will never drop below a certain threshold once a plant and its reactors
are completed. Thus demand will not shrink unless other sources of power (coal
or some new breakthrough) become cheaper.
With that said, we are constantly on the lookout for great
companies with even better stories. During the dot-com era everyone wanted to
find the next Microsoft, but now that “The Uranium Movement” is underway I am
sure many will want to find the next Cameco. Well based on history its more
likely that you will find the great companies in an industry near the beginning
of the boom as opposed to near the middle to end. Think eBay, Yahoo, AOL,
Amazon, and the exception being Google. Well if you want tomorrow's Cameco start
by looking for companies who are even more diverse than them with assets that
are close to producing.
Now look at SXR Uraniumone. This company was created by the
merger of Southern Cross and Aflease recently. Their combined portfolio gives
them assets in Africa and Australia where they hold 100% stakes as well as the
Athabasca region of Canada through a partnership with Pitchstone Exploration
Ltd. The company's mine in Africa (Dominion Rietkuil) is due to open within the
next year (first quarter of 2007), and will also produce a significant gold
by-product. Their Honeymoon project in Australia is the only undeveloped mine in
that country that is at this time “legal” as the country has not totally opened
up to uranium mining as a whole. Also the projects that they are partnered
within the Athabasca with Pitchstone Exploration Ltd. Appear to be top of the
line properties, with their proximity to McArthur River and Cigar Lake. Although
the company has promising properties, its African property will produce 2
million pounds of Uranium until production is expanded in 2011 to 4 million
pounds. So they will shortly be a producer of Uranium and then they will be
working on building their Honeymoon project in Australia which is widely already
believed to be one of the best projects coming online in the world in the near
future. Now there is no telling what the company may or may not find with
Pitchstone, but from our perspective that will just be an added extra for the
company with the potential to give it at least one more world class mine.
This is a company that in our opinion is one of the early
industry leaders, and will use their stable of close to production mines to
build upon their holdings in the future. This will most likely be done through
acquisitions, but there will be more to follow on that later. SXRFF will be
added to our portfolio as of today, and should be considered as safe as
International Uranium (IUCPF) and a step below Cameco.
On a closing note, the recent flooding that has taken place
at Cameco's Cigar Lake should not necessarily be viewed as a negative. Yes it
will cost the company 10% more in construction costs, however it should do them
more good than harm. In six months the price of Uranium could jump more than 10%
which would make this great for Cameco because they are not selling their
product at a cheaper price than they could get later. Also, this event will
force utilities and foreign countries to purchase Uranium from other sources,
and my guess is that they will go after the easiest source to tap
around...Russia's dismantled nuclear weapons! By using these stores up, the
utility industry will forever be forced to purchase from the miners from that
point on, which will most likely be the time when the mainstream investing
community gets wind of the extent of the shortage of Uranium. At this point in
the future there will be no more Uranium sitting around in storage for east
access, and every pound that comes out of the ground will go straight to a mill
to be processed and then taken directly to the plant that purchased it. This
shortage will last for at least another decade, and possibly longer, if the
plants that are on the drawing board around the world come onto production as
planned. U308 has the potential to hit $100 a pound in the coming years,
especially as certain countries (France comes to mind first with 78% of their
production coming from nuclear power, and then China as it will become ever more
dependent on nuclear power in the near future) will require the nuclear solution
as they have no other source of power to fall back on.
Until our next installment, good luck and happy trading...