Although uranium equities have continued to be battered by investors over the past few weeks, the
news flow has been quite positive. One could argue that all of this news has been wasted on the current
market, however even if one is not invested in uranium equities to the extent they once were this news
should be kept up on so moves can be quickly made once the market begins to move upwards again. At
this point a trend we had been following for the past month seems to be quite obvious now so we shall
make the statement that uranium equities will fully recover and be able to power forward only after the
financial crisis begins to come to an end. So long as billions are written off quarter after quarter by the
various financial institutions of the world, markets will remain skittish, volatile and most importantly in a
down-spin.
With the bad news now told to you, this morning we awake to some very pleasant bullish news which
put a smile upon our face. General Electric is now interested in supplying nuclear fuel to those utilities
who purchase their nuclear reactors, much in the way that Areva and Toshiba have decided to do. GE
made it very clear however that they are not interested in actually mining uranium, but rather procuring
supplies so that they can sell reactors with the required fuel. I imagine that this would work in a way very
similar to how Toshiba has set up their Westinghouse subsidiary's business with Kazakhstan's state run
exploration and mining concern Kazatomprom. Although it is highly likely that GE will focus on
companies such as Cameco, Denison Mines, and soon-to-be producers Uranerz Energy and Ur-Energy
to supply it with its material it is also likely to look down the road and lock up production from the likes of
Strathmore Minerals and Uranium Resources who will be producing uranium no earlier than 2009. GE
could use someone outside of the West to supply it with uranium as well and the leading candidates
would be Paladin Resources, Forsys Metals, and the most likely out of these Uranium One who has
diverse sources of production.
Many have been waiting for Big Oil to move back into uranium mining, however it has not happened
at this point, and GE not wanting to enter the business is much more bullish in my opinion than them
moving into the industry. The logic behind this is due to the fact that they are in the reactor building
business, and if they seriously plan on supplying the required fuel they will have to accumulate a
stockpile in the next few years so that they can feed the utilities the required uranium and have a
cushion for emergencies caused by supply chain hick-ups. This takes supply off the table for current
utilities and for each reactor GE adds per year, it will increase their purchases of uranium exponentially.
In order to fire up a new reactor, we are told that it requires 3x more uranium to start up than it will to run
it in the following years. My bet is that GE will use their financial ability to aid them in securing supply
and could purchase from certain companies the first right to refusal of certain amounts of their deposit
upfront, thus providing the companies with "free" cash to develop the deposits into mines.
Much of the financing for deals has dried up in the past few months with the financial sector
meltdown, however this opens up an entirely new pool of money for the uranium miners to tap into
sometime in the future. This is very encouraging news for the industry and the end users and should
help to further propel the current 'Nuclear Renaissance' we find ourselves in.
News also leaked this morning that Nova Scotia could see its mining ban lifted thus enabling the
uranium companies exploring there to someday harness any mineralization from the province. This is
not a sure policy change, but the source indicated that it was from the Premier of Novia Scotia who
indicated that a policy change could be in the works.
Looking ahead we could have a bit further to go down in the general markets, but if financials
continue to be the markets' 'problem children' then uraniums could very well follow. It has been a trend
which has held up over the months as we have followed it, and our experience indicates that trends are
usually not broken until a fundamental change takes place in the market place. Either the banks will
have to reverse course and get the poor news out of their systems, or hedge funds will return to the
uranium equities and spot market in a big way. Hedge funds will not be returning anytime soon, so we
will look for the banks to make their turnaround before knowing the coast is clear and we have a green
light to go forward with once again plowing our hard earned capital into the uranium equities.


Archives
Developing Trends
Friday, January 18, 2008
Properties in Athabasca Basin, Central Mineral Belt of Labrador and Otish Mountains, Quebec
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To the left we
have included the
charts of the
Financial Sector
ETFs, with the
ordinary long ETF
on top and the
leveraged
Financial ETF
below it. Over the
past three months
the trend is
apparent, and as
the ETFs have
gone, so too have
the uranium
equities. Our
uranium index
tracks the
Financial ETFs
much better than
CCJ and DML.TO,
but our charting
program has a bug
at this time so you
will have to take
our word for it at
this time. No
matter how you
look at it, unless
you are shorting at
this moment it can
be said that the
trend is certainly
not your friend.
Be Sure to Check Out the New Potash Section of the Site. Click Here to Visit the Potash Homepage
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