This Train is Pulling out of the Station...
Sunday, December 17, 2006
Oilsands Quest (BQI) has been a stock we have constantly
bragged about. Many of you probably realize that it is about flat or down from
many of our recent buys (however we did buy most of our shares in the $2 range,
so we were averaging up) and wonder why we would push a dog. Well we always knew
that it was a great story, and probably less understood on Wall Street than the
current uranium boom. Yes that's right, less people on Wall Street understand
this phenomenon than the Uranium Boom! We said it first, and will stand by our
word. This drilling season is when many will realize how unique this oil sands
play is (we have also said this in previous posts, but feel that it should be
reiterated).
Last drilling season was when we discovered that the
company was correct on its hypothesis regarding where the bitumen was and how it
would be situated. The company was highly successful as they returned
significant grades and depths of bitumen from roughly 80% of their drill holes.
We believe that as they “fill-in” their drill grid from last season as well as
do more exploratory drilling that they will significantly add to reserves as
well as receive a heft payday from a major oil company (or even national oil
company...think India or China) purchasing a JV agreement for this first
project. My take is that many are weary of what they do not understand, this is
why uranium is still shunned as an investment even in today's environment, and
also the reason people shy away from investing in the only Saskatchwan oil sands
play. Provincial (and for that matter national) borders have never indicated
where a resource area begins or ends, but I guess that it is so engrained in
Wall Street's mind that oil sands are supposed to be in Alberta everyone ignores
the writing on the wall regarding Saskatchewan.
Finally though one of Wall Street's greatest minds is
speaking up for Oilsands Quest! Dennis Gartman (of the highly respected ‘The
Gartman Letter’, Just One Thing, and his many appearances on CNBC) recently
recommended Oilsands Quest for his “All Things Athabasca” investing approach. We
have often quoted and borrowed this approach, as well as expanded it to uraniums
(they are in Athabasa as well, so we are taking this approach one step further).
Suncor Energy has been his only pick and last year he recommended Birch Mountain
Resources as an infrastructure play, but sold out before the collapse. Gartman
had this to say in his Friday December 15 2006 issue:
“Finally regarding “all things Athabasca,” and
particularly an interesting speculation, Oil Sands Quest Inc (AMEX: BQI) [Ed.
Note: In order to be perfectly transparent, we have gotten ourselves involved in
this company buy owning a few thousand shares in our trading account just to
make certain that we focus our attention upon it... at prices modestly above
where it stands as of the close of trading last evening), we are always looking
for ancillary trades in that region, for we are convinced that it is, has been
and shall be in the future, the big story of N. American energy independence.
Our primary interest is of course Suncor Energy. It has been our primary
interest and it shall remain so, for it has the liquidity and it has the history
we need to be involved “in size.” However, we've speculated on other stocks
involved in the Tar Sands, including a time earlier this year when we became
involved (for a very short, but very profitable time) in Birch Mountain. We
bought the shares near $6/share and were stopped out several months later at $7
1/2. We've stood aside since, as BMD has fallen steadily toward $2 1/2. We've no
interest still.
However, Oil Sands Quest was brought to our attention by
our old friend, Dr. Mike Berry. Simply put it is a subsidiary of CanWest
Petroleum, and it has acreage in Saskatchewan (not Alberta) on land contiguous
to the Albertan Athabasca Tar Sands that it is actively pursuing. The stock has
broken its downtrend that is contiguous with the weakness in crude oil prices
made earlier this year. Further, since the lows made in late-September (when Rod
Stewart tells us “We really should be back in school.”), each low has been
higher and so too each high. This is our new “punt” on Athabasca. As a balance
sheet investment , nothing could be worse. The company has negative earnings; it
has negative cash flow; it sells at a price hugely above book value, so be very
much forewarned: this is a highly, highly speculative “punt” on “All Things
Athabasca.” However, we own it... at a small loss at present, and we intend to
add to it when it crosses above $5/share.”
-Dennis Gartman
‘The Gartman Letter’
Friday 12-15-2006.
We highly recommend this letter to all serious investors as
it covers everything from the Forex markets to grains to equities. To find out
more, please visit http://www.thegartmanletter.com/.This tells us that we have
been correct in our assumption that BQI is poised to rocket past $10 (we had
thought that this would happen by the end of this year, but it seems destined
that we shall continue to lay the ground for larger gains in the beginning of
next year) and that the lows have been seen and shall be forgotten. We love the
gains and money the stock market can bring us, however we prize being correct
above all, especially when we are one of only a few who are initially right.
It's great to have an investor far far far wiser than us aboard and investing in
one of our oldest and first picks, and it appears more than ever now we are
poised for further gains. Surely this was the reason BQI had such strength on
Friday when most oils were down.
On a closing note we have now upgraded http://theinvestar.com
to include some company profiles (many more will soon be updated) and added some
news links for uranium news as it is so hard to come by. Until next time, good
luck and happy investing.