A Few Updates with Analysis
Friday, April 28, 2006
Ur Energy: So it seems that investors are beginning to
realize just how undervalued Ur Energy was, as the stock has recently taken off
due to some land deals that have added pounds-in-the-ground to their holdings in
Wyoming. The stock is up about 33% the last week, and we expect further gains in
the future. At this time we cannot comment on what exactly are the pros and cons
of their land transaction in Canada, but that will be pondered as soon as we
know something for sure. This is a stock that we are going to look at
accumulating should it have a decent pullback or begin to consolidate.
Canalaska: What was one of our best performers has recently
given back nearly half of its gains. This is leading up to the news of their
drilling results, which were supposed to be out this month but due to delays
will be released in May. So we wonder if someone knows something that we do not,
or if this is just the speculators not wanting to take further risks. At this
point, we are sticking around for the drilling results, and may contemplate
adding to our positions. However this will be only if there is a buying
opportunity before the drilling results have come out seeing how we just grew
our holdings by 25% somewhere near the beginning of this recent pullback. This
is one to keep an eye out for as it could easily double on good results, and get
cut down to somewhere around the $.35 area on disappointing news.
Cameco: The keystone to a balanced uranium portfolio due to
its industry leader status and the fact that it produces uranium as we speak.
This is a hold as of right now, and we expect the stock to start building a base
around this $40 area as oil is retreating.
SXRuraniumone: If Cameco is our Keystone, this is right
next to it. It should become the next junior to produce which will instantly
begin to line its pockets with cold hard cash. This is very important as the
company will have the ability to leverage and the money to build at Honeymoon
and its other projects in the future without diluting its current owners'
equity. This was proclaimed “Our next Blue Chip” and it has hit a new 52 week
high this trading week.
Paladin: Watch this stock, as it will have a mine opening
up shortly after SXR. It may earn itself into that elite club of future blue
chip status. It has also had a nice run lately, and we are looking to add on any
dips.
Canwest: The stock seems to have its support around $6.50
area, +/- a few cents. Every time the stock approaches or closes at those levels
it seems to have a decent percentage run from that area. I am no TA, and am not
supporting day trading of this stock, but if we were going to add to our
holdings at this time that is the area we would wait to add to our positions at.
Also the newswire has been awfully quite from the company recently, and this
should end sometime. Drill results should be out sometime soon, and if they are
half as good as past results then it should provide some nice upside to the
stock. Our last article may have sounded negative about the potential for loss
of the oil shale holding, but that is not the case. Remember we own shares in
this so we are looking for significant upside on the oil sands alone. This is
after all the reason most got into this stock, an absurdly cheap play on the
black sands of Canada. Regardless, down here in the States people are beginning
to speak of the vast oil shales of the West. It will take years to develop that
area to produce, but it is moving the spotlight to that area. It seems that the
second play on CWPC is coming into play early (Oil Shale). This stock could take
off once it is on the AMEX and people begin to discover all the plays on
unconventional oil it possess. On the Hills alone (assuming the oil is in the
shale as supposed, and it is economical to get it out) the company is grossly
undervalued. The stock could go to $21 in a year if the Hills really do possess
3.4 billion barrels of oil within them and the company decides to move forward
with the project. We eagerly await the news that is inevitably due out within
the month on this stock (There is so much potential here, it is almost unheard
of).
Lundin: The stock set a new 52-week high shortly after our
story, and also set a new intra-day high in the same day. It has since backed
off, but still has not crossed south of that ever important 100 mark (remember
that we are not dealing with Dollars here). This stock should track oil until
they begin drilling in Sudan after the wet season, if the situation in the south
allows them to that is.
As an investor it is important to look for trends. Trends
are everything, as I have learned, sometimes so much so that a stock can
gravitate upwards for no reason other than they are in a trendy industry.
Everyone remembers the 'internet craze' (companies with no revenues or profits
with stock prices levitating to the stratosphere because a .com was at the end
of their name) and the energy 'traders' (they traded a lot of energy, but it was
sold between the same companies for the same $), but these are not the only
trends that exist. Sometimes there are trends within trends, such as the uranium
trend within the energy trend. That takes it below the surface, but what about
trends within uranium? Well this is how money will be made, big dollars. You
just have to find them, and already I have found a few. The one I find most
intriguing at this time is what I want to call the 'Dines Phenomenon'. If you do
not subscribe to his newsletter (personally not a subscriber) you can visit the
various message boards and discover what some of his picks are. Well looking
carefully many of his stock picks fair much better on big down days for uranium
companies. Now this is not because he is a far superior stock guru than the rest
of us, its simply that his followers listen to what he says, and he has stated
that he’s in this for the long haul, not trading if you listen to his readers on
the message boards. So his people are not only holding the stock as it goes down
in sympathy with its peers, but at the same time buying on the dips! This adds
support to the stock and stems losses.
Now I have been told through the comments on this site that
maybe I should listen to Dines and like some of his stocks. Ok, great. But when
I take a stock like Fronteer Resources Group (FRG) and state the reasons I would
not buy it after a big run-up, that's my opinion. The stock went from $3.50 to
over $7 in a short period, and was due for a pullback. I truly believe that your
resources are better put to work elsewhere as this company will be working on
bringing its projects online (nonuranium by the way). If you love gold and
silver, which I think is a good investment at this point, then this may be a
stock for you. But this brings up another concern for me which I will
undoubtedly receive criticism for. Check out the bottom of the Mexican gold and
silver release...”Fronteer may earn a 100% interest, subject to a Teck Cominco
back in right, in both of these projects by spending a combined total of US $2.0
million over four years on exploration to be divided between these two
properties.” Now that back in right, what exactly are the terms? Well you cannot
find it on the company's website or in the rest of that press release, so I
think this may be a subject to do some Due Diligence on. I agree that it would
be great to gain 100% of this project, but what if the Mexican entity can
exercise that right and steal back majority ownership of this discovery...? This
is why I am not an FRG fan, and because of that I cannot be an Aurora fan with
the taint of its parent company on it. Plus we want stocks that do not have
parent companies behind them, because if they have parent companies behind them
then they are not our investment vehicles, but rather the investment vehicles of
their parent company. AND THAT IS WHAT AURORA IS. The name of this game is ASSET
ALLOCATION, and we must wisely allocate our assets in order to get the highest
rate of return on our capital.